Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
10
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
88
40-35-13
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1304
· range 1109–1584
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 17 | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 47.6% | 46.8% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 26.9% | -13.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -3.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 53.8% | +1.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.2% | -8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.6% | +2.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 59.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.9% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.0% | +9.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 79.6% | +18.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.2% | -20.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 31.5% | -11.8 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
